There are many who, like Chicken Little, enjoy saying, "The sky is falling" in terms of the housing market. But looking at the data, this does not seem to be the case. There are two big topics that are frequently brought up as "sky-falling" data points: the share of distressed sellers and the number of cancelled contracts. Let’s take a look at the data from NAR's REALTORS® Confidence Index. 

Every month, NAR surveys its members to determine if they worked with a client who had a distressed sale, either via a short sale or a foreclosure. In June, 3% of REALTORS®' sales were distressed, unchanged from one month ago (3%) and only modestly more so than a year ago (2%). Since April of 2017, the share of REALTORS® working with a distressed seller has been 5% or less. Since March 2019, the share has ranged from zero to 3%. To put those figures into perspective, the share reached 49% back in March 2009. 

Line graph: Share of REALTORS® with a distressed sale, October 2008 to June 2025

In addition to NAR’s measure of distressed sellers, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that less than 1% of mortgage holders are 90 days or more delinquent on their loans.  Mortgage holders should be emphasized, as NAR estimates 40% of homeowners do not even have a mortgage on their property, so they are at no risk of default as they do not have a loan. 

Next, let's take a look at housing contract terminations: REALTORS® are asked to think of their most recent sales contract that was settled, closed, or terminated in the last three months. In doing so, 6% of contracts were terminated during the previous three months—flat from 6% one month ago and virtually unchanged from 5% one year ago. While this dataset goes back only to 2015, the highest share of terminated contracts occurred in April 2020 (at 12%). Since March of 2023, the share of terminated contracts has ranged from 4% to 7%. 

Line graph: Share of REALTORS® with a terminated contract, March 2015 to June 2025

The majority of contracts were settled on time, and the majority encountered no problems settling. Of course, problems can arise in any transaction, but these have not varied much over time: home inspections, issues with the buyer’s financing, and appraisal are the top issues that may come up. 

The best way to combat Chicken Littles is to research the data. The REALTORS® Confidence Index is released monthly with NAR's Existing-Home Sales report and can help REALTORS® cut through the noise.