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Summer is in full swing, the heat is reaching its peak, and it’s starting to take a toll on prospective home buyers. Families are juggling home viewings with planned vacations, and the frequent outbidding in June has them considering waiting for things to cool down. However, it is still the most convenient time to move, so most buyers remain in the market in the hope of finding something before the school year begins. These points represent various considerations of prospective buyers that reflect the broader housing market in July.

These are what we call seasonality trends, patterns we see every year around the same time. They help explain how buyers and sellers usually behave as the housing market reaches peak sales season and offer useful insight for planning real estate strategies. Buyers and sellers can use these seasonal trends to understand the broader market as they decide how to time their home purchase or listing.

It is important to note that the following estimates represent a “normal” pre-pandemic summer (1999-2019). This allows us to compare today's housing market with what is typically expected at this time of year.

Supply & Demand

To begin with, we can look at the average number of existing-home sales in July:

  • June: 552,714
  • July: 517,381
  • August: 530,286
  • September: 447,048

Existing-home sales typically decline by 6.3% in July. While this is a prominent drop, sales generally remain high compared to other months, with July maintaining the third-highest average sales, just behind the surrounding months of June and August. In June, we saw the highest number of sales and prices of the year—and that increased competition likely discouraged some prospective buyers struggling to find a home at an affordable price point, leading some of these households to wait until prices decrease alongside demand in the fall. Other households may simply be busy with summer plans, prioritizing a move closer to the end of the season. Despite this reduction, July remains one of the strongest months for sales, largely driven by the optimal viewing conditions of warm summer weather and daylight, combined with the convenience of the school year timing.

Shifting to inventory, we can get a sense of how sellers are responding to the fluctuating yet elevated demand as the summer progresses. Let’s take a closer look at inventory to further understand supply:

  • June: 2.57 million
  • July: 2.59 million
  • August: 2.59 million
  • September: 2.52 million

These levels reflect typical pre-pandemic summer conditions, well above today’s inventory, which remains below 1.6 million—about a million homes short of what used to be normal.

Historically, inventory slightly increases in July, peaking at 2.59 million. This small jump is likely due to sellers noticing the spike in demand and prices seen in June, coupled with a desire to move before the start of the school year. Sellers may also be pressured to act by July to ensure a move before the fall, when schedules become less flexible. Investors looking to liquidate properties before the end of the year are also incentivized to sell since the market has reached its peak and prices are expected to decline.

 

Shifting to price, we typically see a decline of roughly 0.9% in July. This small decrease is expected given the rise in the number of homes on the market combined with the dip in demand seen in existing-home sales. These conditions contribute to reduced overall competition, encouraging sellers to lower their prices in response to the number of offers coming in. While we do see lower prices on average, it is important to note that July still records the second-highest median home price of the year, just behind June. This means that the market remains relatively strong despite this normal seasonal cooling.

Days on the Market: How Quickly Sellers Can Expect to Find a Buyer 

Next, we will look at the number of days a typical home spends on the market to see how market conditions in July impact the time required for a seller to find a deal in the midsummer season.

 

The number of days a typical home spends on the market increases by three days in July, bringing the days on market to just over a month. As with price, we tend to see slower turnover when inventory increases relative to the prior month. Days on market remain relatively low; however, the increase signals a distinct shift from the steep decline that began in April and continued through the early summer. This increase sets the trajectory heading into fall, with modest increases as market demand cools.

Buyer Characteristics: Who is In the Market in July?

Lastly, we will look at the share of first-time and cash buyers to get a sense of the typical buyer in the month of July.

 

The share of first-time home buyers historically declines by 0.9 percentage points—the second-largest decrease, just behind January. Young families may be losing momentum now that June has passed and the expectation to get into a new home at the beginning of the summer has diminished. Some of these buyers are also likely noticing the consistently elevated prices associated with the season, leading them to hold off buying until prices come down and competition eases. While this trend is observed in the typical pre-pandemic first-time home buyer, we see that in recent years this demographic has been more responsive to price fluctuations, resulting in a slight uptick in July in line with the corresponding price drop discussed above.

The share of cash buyers jumps by about 0.75 percentage points, which is consistent with the marginal price drop. Investors are heavily swayed by market timing to secure a favorable price, leading summer buyers to prefer later months for the relatively lower cost. The share of institutional buyers typically does not see larger spikes until the late fall and winter when prices reach their lowest levels.

In July, REALTORS® may see a slight slowdown as the market adjusts to fluctuating demand during the busy season. Buyers can be informed that seasonal price premiums are softening and that inventory typically increases, providing them with slightly more opportunities. Sellers may notice a bit more delay in finding a buyer than in prior months, but prices remain historically elevated, making July one of the strongest months of the year to sell despite the seasonal slowdown.