Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

Most REALTORS® Expect “Strong” Market Conditions in the Next Six Months Based on November 2017 Survey

In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index (RCI) Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® asks members What are your expectations for the housing market over the next six months compared to the current state of the market in the neighborhood(s) or area(s) where you conduct most of your business?”

According to the Six-month Outlook REALTORS® Confidence Index, REALTORS® broadly expect sales to be “strong” than “weak” in the next six months across property types, with the index measuring above 50 for all property types[1]: 71 for single-family detached homes (74 in November 2016), 58 for townhomes (58 in November 2016), and 56 for condominiums (54 in November 2016).

The chart below shows the RCI Index -Six-month Outlook indices by state based on responses in the September, October, and November 2017 surveys, according to the  November 2017 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.[2]

In the single-family (detached) market, REALTOR® respondents expected the outlook to be “stable” to “very strong” in all states, except in Alaska.  The states with “very strong” outlooks were Washington, Nevada, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Delaware, and Rhode Island.

6 month

In the townhome market, REALTOR® respondents in 41 states also expected the 12-month outlook to be “stable” to “very strong” in the next 12 months compared to current market conditions. Among the states which had “strong” outlooks, the highest indices (over 60) were for Washington, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Nebraska, Georgia, Minnesota, Delaware, and Hawaii.


In the condominium market, respondents had “strong” outlooks in 16 states: Washington, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, California, Colorado, Arizona, Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont.


[1] An index above 50 means that more respondents had “strong” than “weak” market outlooks.

[2] The November RCI survey was conducted from December 1‒11, 2017, which covers the dates when the House of Representatives and the Senate passed their versions of the tax reform, on November 16, 2017 and December 2, 2017, respectively. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed by Congress on December 22, 2017.