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Last week, you felt a cool breeze on your way to work for the first time in a long time, and it felt like an old friend gently telling you that it’s time to slow down a bit. While it was a pleasant, albeit temporary relief from the day-to-day toil, the continued stress from getting the kids situated in school and activities has you wondering what to do about your planned move. While the prospect has become more inconvenient given the academic year, you know that if you do not act now, then you may lose momentum as the weather cools down and holiday busyness arises, meaning it may be time to come to a firm decision on whether it’s going to happen this year or not. This picture highlights some considerations prospective buyers may be grappling with as summer ends and fall begins.

These are what we call seasonality trends: patterns we see every year around the same time. They help explain how buyers and sellers usually behave as the housing market enters the fall season and offer useful insight for planning real estate strategies. Buyers and sellers can use these seasonal trends to understand the broader market as they decide when to buy or list their home. It is important to note that the following estimates represent a “normal” pre-pandemic summer (1999-2019). This allows us to compare today’s housing market with what would typically be expected during this time of year.

Supply & Demand

To begin with, we can look at the average number of existing-home sales in September:

  • August: 530,286
  • September: 447,048
  • October: 441,667
  • November: 398,571

Historically, existing-home sales decline about 15.4% in September. This decrease marks a distinct shift as the market transitions out of the busy season, second only to the drop typically seen in January. While home sales are no longer at peak levels, market conditions remain relatively strong compared to the rest of the year. Many families that did not move in the summer may have decided to forgo the home search since school has started. On the other hand, certain households that were consistently outbid in the summer months may see more opportunities due to the slowdown in competitive offers, and some buyers may recognize that weather conditions remain favorable relative to what is expected in the coming months. Price-sensitive buyers may have more opportunities to get into a new home than in recent months, since inventory typically declines more gradually around this time of year.

Let’s take a closer look at inventory to further understand supply:

  • August: 2.59 million
  • September: 2.52 million
  • October: 2.50 million
  • November: 2.43 million

These levels reflect typical pre-pandemic summer conditions, well above today’s inventory, which remains below 1.6 million—about a million homes short of what used to be normal.

Similar to existing-home sales, inventory typically decreases by roughly 2.6% in September. While this decline is substantial relative to past months, September still maintains levels comparable to spring and summer, since consecutive month-to-month reductions associated with late fall and winter have yet to begin. Many sellers experience similar challenges to buyers when it comes to the academic year; however, a September sale may represent a potential sweet spot in the sense that a seller may be able to obtain a favorable price coming out of the summer and subsequently purchase a new home when prices have declined going into the fall.

Home prices typically decrease by about 2.6% in September. Second only to January, the reduction in September is in line with the broader season shift seen alongside buyer demand. While prices tend to go down each month after July, it is important to remember that peak levels seen in the summer are the reference point, meaning that prices remain comparable to mid-spring and are closer to the average month rather than the lowest levels in the year.

Days on the Market: How Quickly Sellers Can Expect to Find a Buyer

Next, we will look at the number of days a typical home remains on the market to see how market conditions in September impact the time required for a seller to find a deal in the early fall season.

The number of days a typical home spends on the market tends to increase in September by three days. The increase is likely driven by the sudden change in the number of buyers in the market coupled with inventory levels that have not dwindled down to match the number of offers coming in quite yet, resulting in a longer delay for homes listed on the market. Despite these conditions, warm weather remains relatively prominent in many states, providing favorable conditions for open houses.

Buyer Characteristics: Who Is in the Market in September?

Lastly, we will look at the share of first-time and cash buyers to get a sense of the typical buyer in the month of September.  

Historically, the share of first-time home buyers sees little change in September, hovering around 31% from mid-summer through early fall. This is likely due to young families' competing priorities around this time of year. Families with children not yet in school are less likely to be affected by academic timing, and the September price decline may be a strong motivator, since this demographic tends to be more price sensitive.

Like first-time home buyers, the share of cash buyers typically does not change meaningfully from August to September. While home prices generally ease from their summer peak as the market moves into fall and winter, inventory also tends to decline. For cash buyers, this can mean somewhat lower prices but fewer homes to choose from.

In September, REALTORS® can expect a slowdown in sales and listings, along with lower prices, as households settle in for the end of the year. However, many opportunities remain available to buyers and sellers. For buyers, less competition may create more room to negotiate, although there may also be fewer options on the market in the following months. For sellers, demand may be lower than during the peak spring and summer months, but buyers who remain in the market may be more motivated to purchase.