Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

What’s Ahead for Home Prices? Using Multiple Data Sources to Find Out

  • The National Association of Realtors Research data shows that the median price of single family homes rose 9.4 percent compared to one year ago. Yes, more sales of pricier homes this year compared to last year is partially responsible for that result. Still, the trend for home values is up according to NAR’s data.
  • Case Shiller data shows a similar trend, but lags a bit behind the NAR data. You can see this visually in the graph above, and this can also be demonstrated numerically.
  • NAR data began to show a year-over-year decline in house prices as early as June 2006. Case Shiller data showed a negative year-over-year growth rate starting in January 2007.
  • In March 2012, NAR data began to show year-over-year growth in home prices again, and data has showed 5 consecutive increases through July 2012. Case Shiller’s most recent reading in May 2012 showed a less than one percent year-over-year decline — an improvement over rates of change from previous months, but still not an increase.
  • If history is any guide, year-over-year growth in the Case Shiller data may be seen as early as Tuesday’s (8/28/12) release.
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