In the week ending September 6, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits reached a seasonally adjusted level of 263,000, the highest level of initial claims since October 23, 2021 (when it was 268,000). 

In terms of actual levels (not seasonally adjusted data), the number of initial claims increased to 204,581, a 4.0% increase from the previous week. At the same time last year, there were 178,687 initial claims. Nevertheless, between August 30 and September 6, initial claims showed a decline in 32 states. 

Key observations:

  • The largest increase in initial claims was in North Dakota, where the number of claims rose from 260 to 960 (+269.2%).
  • It was followed by an increase in Texas, where initial claims doubled (+55.0%).
  • The largest declines in claims occurred in Tennessee (-52.1%), Nebraska (-40.9%), and Mississippi (-40.3%).
  • In the DMV (DC, VA, MD) area, the District of Columbia saw a 17% rise in initial claims, making it the state equivalent with the fifth highest increase in claims for that week.
  • Initial claims increased in Virginia (+1.1%) but declined in Maryland (-14.7%). However, the four-week average showed general improvement in both states. 

 

"Initial unemployment claims" refer to the number of new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment benefits. Initial claims provide weekly national and state-level estimates, serving as a good indicator of new layoffs and providing early signs of changes in the economic cycle.

In addition to the initial claims, NAR has been monitoring "continued unemployment claims," which is the number of people still receiving unemployment benefits after filing their first claim. Unlike initial claims, continued claims indicate long-term unemployment. 

For the week ending August 30, continued unemployment claims increased by 5.1% compared to the same time last year, while initial claims increased by 3.5% year over year. Overall, the level of continued claims has been on the rise since February 4, 2023. 

 

Unemployment insurance claims, along with payroll employment additions, are key indicators to watch in the coming months, as they offer valuable insights into the overall health of the economy. In August, the U.S. labor market added only 22,000 jobs, indicating a weakening job market. As it relates to the housing market, a weakening labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut the short-term interest rates in the upcoming months, which would subsequently lower mortgage rates.

To see how unemployment benefits have changed in your market, select a state on the map below: