Since the onset of mass layoffs in the federal government this year, NAR has been tracking two key economic indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, which reflects whether the labor market continues to add jobs, and unemployment insurance claims, which provide insight into recent layoffs trends. In particular, initial unemployment insurance claims refer to the new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation. Initial claims data provide state-level estimates on a weekly basis. 

In April, the U.S. labor market added 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding the average monthly gain of 152,000 over the previous 12 months. Additionally, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, unchanged from March. 

In line with continuous employment growth, the number of initial unemployment insurance claims fell by 1.3% in May, from 207,813 in the week ending May 3 to 205,183 in the week ending May 10. 

Nationally, these indicators bring good news for the current economy, with employment continuing to grow and jobless claims declining. However, job data reflect changes after economic shifts have occurred, while initial claims offer early signs of upcoming changes in the economic cycle. Therefore, examining state-level data can provide valuable insights into the overall employment situation in the near future. 

For the week ending May 10, only 18 states reported a decrease in the number of initial claims compared to the previous week. New Hampshire, Michigan, and Wyoming saw the largest new unemployment claims decline, decreasing by 56.6%, 48.3%, and 28.4%, respectively.  

Conversely, Massachusetts, Nebraska, and Virginia reported the highest increases in new claims for the same week, rising by 82.3%, 68.4%, and 42.3%, respectively. Overall, similar to last month, more states experienced an increase than a decline in unemployment claims from May 3 to May 10.

In our previous analysis of unemployment claims, the number of initial claims decreased around the District of Columbia. However, data from the first few weeks of May shows that new jobless claims in Maryland have been rising since April 12. And in Virginia, claims have increased for the first time since March 22. Conversely, Washington, D.C., claims have been declining since March 1.

Historically, unemployment insurance data closely followed economic fluctuations, reaching peak levels during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 lockdowns. The total number of new claims filed in the week ending May 10 was 205,183, a decrease of 2,630 claims from the previous week. Additionally, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, claims for unemployment benefits filed by former federal employees totaled 438 for the week ending May 3, a decrease of 30 claims from the week prior. Thus, despite an increase in claims in Maryland and Virginia over the past few weeks, we might not yet see the impact of mass layoffs in the federal government on the national employment situation.

Click on a state on the map to see how initial unemployment claims changed between May 3 and May 10, 2025: