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Last month, the U.S. Census Bureau released the 2025 population estimates, which include key metrics such as population growth, natural change, domestic and international migration, and net migration. Together, these indicators shed light on national demographic shifts, offering insight into housing market trends and changes in 2026.

Last year, the U.S. experienced a historic decline in international migration, slowing overall population growth. Between 2024 and 2025, population growth totaled only 1.8 million (0.5%), the slowest increase since 2021, when the population growth rate reached a historic low (0.2%) amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The slowdown—largely caused by a decline in international migration—comes after a significant uptick in the U.S. population growth in 2024, when the nation grew by 1.0%, the fastest annual growth rate since 2006. It’s important to note that 2024’s stronger growth was partly influenced by a census methodology update that more fully captured net international migrations. As a result, the moderation in 2025 reflects not only softer international migration flows but also a normalization following both elevated migration levels and improved measurement in 2024.

Population growth, whether driven by natural change or net migration, plays a central role in shaping housing demand. This analysis uses the census population and migration data to identify the top 15 states across each indicator:

Population Growth

Population growth was the strongest in South Carolina (1.5%), Idaho (1.4%), and North Carolina (1.3%) in 2025. The states with the largest populations remained unchanged from the prior year: California (39.3 million), Texas (31.8 million), and Florida (23.5 million).

Regionally, the Midwest stood out as the only region with every state recording population gains in 2025, largely due to modest natural increase (more births than deaths). Several Midwestern states were ranked among the 15 fastest-growing states by percentage, including South Dakota (0.9%) and North Dakota (0.8%). Ohio (39,889), Indiana (38,579), and Minnesota (33,000) were also placed in the top 15 for population growth in absolute terms. 
Overall, the U.S. population grew more slowly than in 2024. Nevertheless, only five states saw no change or a decline in population growth: California (0%), Hawaii (-0.1%), New Mexico (-0.1%), Vermont (-0.3%), and West Virginia (-0.1%).

Births and Natural Change

Natural change is the difference between births and deaths: A positive rate means births exceed deaths, while a negative rate means deaths outnumber births. A positive natural change rate indicates that a population can grow without relying on migration, helping support long-term economic stability. 
Broadly speaking, births and deaths remained relatively stable compared to 2024. In terms of the number of births, the states with the fastest percentage change increases included Colorado (4.6%), Idaho (3.6%), South Carolina (2.8%), Utah (2.8%), and Florida (2.2%). Florida (4,758) and Colorado (2,863) were also leading in absolute numbers.

Twenty-six states recorded an improvement in the natural change rate last year. South Carolina, already the fastest-growing state, experienced the largest turnaround in natural change: It reversed its 2024 natural change figure from -525 to 564, representing a 207.4% increase. Notable increases in natural change growth were also recorded in Kentucky (91.3%), Florida (83.4%), and Montana (59.6%).

Domestic and International Migration

Migration plays a central role in housing demand: Domestic migration highlights the most attractive destinations for American movers, while international migration is shaping future population growth.

Looking at domestic migration, the South region remained the most popular destination for U.S. movers, accounting for nine of the 15 states with the largest domestic migration gains. At the top of the list, North Carolina led with 84,064 net domestic movers, followed by Texas (67,299), South Carolina (66,622), and Tennessee (42,389). Minnesota saw the largest domestic migration growth, reversing a loss of 204 movers in 2024 into a gain of 8,300 movers in 2025. It was followed by Ohio (990.7%), Washington (434.6%), and Oregon (228.3%). In absolute terms, Ohio (13,265), Illinois (13,063), and California (12,534) had the largest gains.  

While domestic migration increased in 32 states last year, international migration declined nationwide. In total, international migration dropped from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. As in prior years, Florida remained the most popular state for international movers, followed by Texas, California, and New York.

Net Migration

The decline in international migration reduced net migration across all states, with only West Virginia (1,231, or 22.7%) and Montana (55, or 0.8%) recording net migration growth. Nonetheless, the South maintained its position as the leader in net migration gains, accounting for the top five states: Texas (234,774), Florida (201,191), North Carolina (130,954), South Carolina (79,552), and Georgia (69,912).

See below for the estimates of all states: