The Market Dynamics of June: Sales, Inventory, and Buyer Trends

The warmth of the sun has enlivened the spirits of many households, and now that school is out, the additional flexibility allows them to fully commit to the search for a new home. The prospective buyer may notice that homes are going fast and at higher-than-expected prices. Despite this, the convenience of moving soon so that children can have time before school begins motivates them to continue searching and, to the degree possible, to put down more competitive offers. This picture presents various factors affecting the typical buyer and helps us understand the conditions that influence the housing market in June.

These are what we call seasonality trends: patterns we see every year around the same time. They help explain how buyers and sellers typically behave during the housing market's peak sales season and offer useful insights for planning real estate strategies. Buyers and sellers can use these seasonal trends to understand the broader market as they decide how to time their home purchase or listing.

It is important to note that the following estimates represent a “normal” pre-pandemic summer (1999-2019). This allows us to compare today's housing market with what is typically expected at this time of year.

Supply & Demand

To begin with, we can look at the average number of existing-home sales in and around June:

• May: 510,762
• June: 552,714
• July: 517,381
• August: 530,286

Existing-home sales typically rise by 8.2% in June, reaching their highest level of the year on average. The beginning of the summer marks a distinct shift in the housing market, characterized by the end of the school year for most localities, additional daylight, and consistently warm weather. These conditions provide flexibility by allowing families to travel farther with children and extending the window of time for open house viewings, allowing prospective buyers to broaden their home search. Buying a home in June also gives families ample time to settle into the area, enjoy vacations, and finalize the sale before enrolling children in school, making it one of the most convenient times to move.

The inflow of buyers can also be understood in terms of supply. Many of these buyers are likely to sell their current home and take advantage of the season's quick turnaround to complete the transaction, resulting in an increase in inventory.

Let’s take a closer look at inventory to further understand supply:

• May: 2.55 million
• June: 2.57 million
• July: 2.59 million
• August: 2.59 million

These levels reflect typical pre-pandemic summer conditions, well above today’s inventory, which remains below 1.5 million — about one million homes short of what used to be normal.

In June, we typically see an increase in inventory of about 0.8%. June presents specific advantages for sellers, including the optimal moving conditions discussed above, if they plan to buy, and the high prices associated with the season. Some sellers may be looking to list their home at a time when they are likely to get the best price and subsequently use the additional funds towards the purchase of a new home. Additionally, investors are likely contributing to the increase in supply in June, as the sale price is the driving factor for the demographic. If a seller is looking to liquidate property assets, timing the market when prices are high allows them to maximize their return on investment.

Historically, the typical home spends about 30 days on the market in June, representing the fastest turnover in the year (alongside May). The favorable weather conditions driving prospective buyers to spend more time viewing homes result in more frequent offers, decreasing the days spent on the market. As mentioned above, buyers are motivated to move early on in the summer and may be trying to sell their home at the same time, resulting in intentional offers aimed at quick turnaround.

Buyer Characteristics: Who Is in the Market in June?

Lastly, we will look at the share of first-time and cash buyers to get a sense of the typical buyer in the month of June.

The share of first-time home buyers typically reaches its highest level in June, at 32.2%, compared with other months. Young families are likely looking to get children involved in activities and make friends prior to the start of the school year. While this demographic is expected to be more price-sensitive, it appears that the logistical convenience of the early summer outweighed the pressure to wait until prices declined through the fall in the pre-pandemic market. In recent years, we have seen the share of first-time buyers spread across early spring and late fall, likely due to increased price sensitivity.

On the other hand, cash buyers historically have their lowest level of activity in June, with the share of homes purchased declining to 19.9%. The elevated prices driven by intense competition among household buyers typically discourage investors from paying a premium when prices are expected to steadily decline over the remainder of the year. 

In June, REALTORS® can expect to see more supply coupled with a jump in prospective buyers, resulting in fast turnover and relatively high prices. These conditions give sellers the opportunity to secure a favorable deal quickly, as multiple offers are likely to be made within the first few weeks of listing. Persistent buyers can be informed that the market is at its peak busy season, meaning higher-than-expected offers may be necessary to secure a home in this time frame due to the high level of competition.