REALTORS® Expect Nearly 3% Home Price Growth in the Next 12 Months

In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® asks members “In the neighborhood or area where you make most of your sales, what are your expectations for residential property prices over the next year?”

Among the REALTOR® respondents, the median expected price change for the next 12 months was 2.9 percent. Local conditions vary. The map below shows the median expected price change of the respondents in the next 12 months at the state level for surveys conducted in September—November 2017, according to the  November 2017 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.[1] REALTOR® respondents from Washington and Nevada expected the highest price growth, with the median expected price growth at more than five to six percent. In Arizona, Colorado, Florida, and Delaware, the median expected price growth was four to five percent.

Among Nevada REALTOR® respondents, the median expected price change has increased from about four percent in 2014–2016 to 6.2 percent in the Sept‒Nov 2017 surveys. Among Washington REALTOR® respondents, the median expected price change has fluctuated at around five to seven percent since 2016.

Tight supply and strong demand have driven up prices.  In Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, the median listing price has more than doubled to $285,045 as of November 2017 from $124,999 in May 2012, as the number of active listings on Realtor.com has dropped to 10,445, just half the 21,068 listings in May 2012.

In Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, the median listing price has increased to $499,050 in November 2017, a 63 percent appreciation from the median listing price of $307,549 in May 2012, with just 5,050 active listings on Realtor.com in November 2017, about nearly half of the 9,601 active listings in May 2012.

Nationally, as of the end of November 2017, there were 1.67 million existing homes for sale, equivalent to 3.4 months of supply at the current monthly sales’ pace, which is well below the normal level of about 6 months of supply, and below the 2.33 million existing home listing in January 2012, the start of the housing market’s recovery (660,000 fewer homes listed).

The November RCI survey was conducted from December 1‒11, 2017, which covers the dates when the House of Representatives and the Senate passed their versions of the tax reform, on November 16, 2017 and December 2, 2017, respectively. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed by Congress on December 22, 2017.