Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

REALTORS® Expect Moderate Price Growth in Next 12 Months

In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® asks members “In the neighborhood or area where you make most of your sales, what are your expectations for residential property prices over the next year?”

REALTORS® who responded to the November 2015 survey expected prices to increase by 3.2 percent over the next 12 months (3.2 percent in October 2015; 3.0 percent in November 2014).9 REALTORS® expect the recent strong price growth to moderate as rising prices have made homes “unaffordable” for many, according to the November  2015 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey Report.10

The map shows the median expected price change in the next 12 months for each state based on the September – November 2015 RCI surveys.10 REALTOR® respondents from Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, Colorado, and Florida were the most upbeat, with a median expected price growth in the range of four to five percent. Compared to expectations in previous months, no state had a median expected price growth of over five percent, an indication that prices are expected to rise at a modest pace in the next 12 months.

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9 A comparison of the expected price growth for the next 12 months compared to the actual price growth shows the expected price growth to be more conservative than the actual price growth, but both are generally headed in the same direction.

10 In generating the median price expectation at the state level, we use data for the last three surveys to have close to 30 observations. Small states such as AK, ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and D.C., may have less than 30 observations.

10 In generating the median price expectation at the state level, we use data for the last three surveys to have close to 30 observations. Small states such as AK, ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and D.C., may have less than 30 observations.

Notice: The information on this page may not be current. The archive is a collection of content previously published on one or more NAR web properties. Archive pages are not updated and may no longer be accurate. Users must independently verify the accuracy and currency of the information found here. The National Association of REALTORS® disclaims all liability for any loss or injury resulting from the use of the information or data found on this page.

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