Economists' Outlook

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REALTORS® Expect Home Prices to Increase at a Faster Pace in the Next 12 Months

In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® asks members “In the neighborhood or area where you make most of your sales, what are your expectations for residential property prices over the next year?”

Among REALTORS® who responded to the February 2017 survey, the median expected home price change in the next 12 months was 3.8 percent, according to the February 2017 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey Report, a monthly survey of REALTORS® about their sales activity and local market conditions.[1]

The map below shows the median expected price change of the respondents in the next 12 months at the state level.[2] The state of Washington has the highest median expected price growth at nearly six percent, followed by the states of Oregon, Montana, Utah, Colorado, Michigan, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Rhode Island at four to five percent. The oil-producing states of Alaska and North Dakota have the lowest median expected price change; respondents expect a slight decline in Alaska home prices and growth of less than two percent in North Dakota in the next 12 months.

price change

Looking at the values over time in selected states, the median expected price change appears to be increasing again, indicating that respondents expect demand to remain strong, even as home prices continue to rise.[3] In many states, the expected price change in the next 12 months is higher than the expected price change one year ago.

price west
price midwest
price south
price northeast

[1]The author thanks Danielle Hale, Managing Director, Housing Research; Meredith Dunn, Research Communications Manager; and Amanda Riggs, Research Survey Analyst for their comments. Any errors are attributable to the author.

[2] The median expected price change is a measure that represents the middle value of the distribution of responses.

[3] To increase the number of observations for each state, NAR uses data from the last three surveys. The selected states shown in these charts are those with approximately 150 observations.

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