Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

REALTORS® Expect Price Growth Moderate in Next 12 Months

REALTORS® who responded to the August 2015 survey expected prices to increase by 3.5 percent over the next 12 months (3.6 percent in July 2015; 3.5 percent in August 2014): August 2015 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey. 9

The map shows the median expected price change in the next 12 months for each state based on the June-August 2015 RCI surveys.10 REALTOR® respondents from Florida had the most upbeat price expectations, with a median expected price growth in the range of five to six percent. In Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and Georgia, the median expected price growth among respondents was four to five percent.

REALTOR® respondents reported that they expect price growth to moderate after a strong price recovery that has made homes less affordable.

price change

9 A comparison of the expected price growth for the next 12 months compared to the actual price growth shows the expected price growth to be more conservative than the actual price growth, but both are generally headed in the same direction.

10 In generating the median price expectation at the state level, we use data for the last three surveys to have close to 30 observations. Small states such as AK,ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and D.C., may have less than 30 observations.

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