Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

Applications for Purchase Mortgages

  • Applications for purchase mortgages rose 4.6 percent for the week ending January 22nd after a 1.6 percent decline in the prior week. Despite recent volatility, the 4-week moving average remains 21.3 percent stronger than the same time last year.
  • Applications to purchase homes swung dramatically in wake of the implementation of TRID, but have since gained traction. More recent end-of-year volatility has also given way to steady growth relative to last year.

jan 22

  • The 4-week moving average, a means of smoothing this weekly volatility, sat at 21.3 percent stronger than a year earlier. While this was a decline from the 25.7 percent year-over-year gain from a week earlier, the measure is robust relative to last year’s late January strength.
  • The gains were concentrated in the conventional sector which jumped 5.5% compared to a 2.7% gain in the conventional space.
  • The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed slipped 4 basis points higher to 4.02 percent. Rates have fallen steadily from 4.20 percent just four weeks ago, but are 19 basis points higher the 3.83 percent average this time last year. Despite the increase rates remain historically low and FHA’s fees are much lower aiding affordability.

taper

  • This week’s improvement is likely to concede ground next week due to snow-related delays in the South, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England regions. However, purchase applications should pick up thereafter.
  • Buyer sentiment suggests sustained interest and a drop in actual doors opened isn’t necessarily contradictory. Rather, this pattern likely reflects the sharp drop in available inventory in December. Price growth and withering negative equity will help to generate nascent trade up activity, but additional inventory is needed to maintain turnover and to arrest strong price growth.
Notice: The information on this page may not be current. The archive is a collection of content previously published on one or more NAR web properties. Archive pages are not updated and may no longer be accurate. Users must independently verify the accuracy and currency of the information found here. The National Association of REALTORS® disclaims all liability for any loss or injury resulting from the use of the information or data found on this page.

Advertisement

Comment Policy

The opinions expressed in reader comments sections on this website are those of the reader and not NAR or REALTOR® Magazine.

About Economists' Outlook

Visit this blog daily to see what NAR experts are saying about the economy, the housing market, and other factors that will impact your business.

Housing Minute

Housing Minute is a monthly video series highlighting the latest housing data from the National Association of REALTORS® in a minute or less.