Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

A more granular look at home prices

  • Previously, we looked at the FHFA and Case-Shiller release focusing on national data trends. Today, we’ll dig a bit deeper to look at more local data at the regional, state, and city or MSA level.
  • Monthly FHFA releases data at the Census division level and quarterly it releases state and metro area data. Case-Shiller offers data on 20-cities monthly. Both of these sources confirm the trend seen in NAR measures.
  • At the regional level: the most robust home price gains from a year ago were in the West. NAR reported price change of 15.5% in December and 14.6% in January. According to FHFA year over year prices in December 2013 rose 14.9 percent in the Pacific division which includes Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California and 12.6 percent in the Mountain division which includes Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico.
  • Likewise, NAR data showed the smallest price gains from a year ago in the Northeast (3.5% for the year ending in December and 6.6% for the year ending in January), and FHFA showed a similar pattern. Prices rose 2.7 percent in New England (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut) and 2.1 percent in the Middle Atlantic states (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) from December one year ago.
  • State by state data, pictured below, shows more detail. Some states in the South had very robust growth: Florida, Georgia, and Texas, but the region as a whole had more moderate growth because of states with more modest home price growth or mild declines such as West Virginia, Arkansas, and Mississippi.
  • Among cities, Case-Shiller reported the biggest year over year gains in Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Each had more than 20% year over year gains. The smallest gains in Case Shiller’s cities were Cleveland at 4.5 percent and New York at 6.3 percent. While the cities covered differ, NAR saw similar trends with the largest home price gains in the 4th quarter out West in cities such as Sacramento and Las Vegas. NAR also saw substantial home price gains in Atlanta, a city that showed an 18.1 percent year over year gain by Case Shiller’s measure. In the quarterly release, FHFA produced a similar list of the top-20 metro areas. Again, the specific areas covered are different, but many of the top metro areas on FHFA’s list are out West including Modesto (CA), Stockton-Lodi (CA), and Vallejo-Fairfield (CA) as the top 3.

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