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Addressing an audience of hundreds on yet another big stage last week, Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), acknowledged that the broad-based real estate rally that he and many other economists have been predicting has not—and will not—happen this year. "As you know, 2024 has been a very difficult year on many fronts, even in your pocketbooks," he said. "According to the statistics, we did not get the home sales recovery this year after an awful 2023." With 2024 now almost certain to see a lower rate of home sales than the already historically sluggish pace seen in 2023, Yun and other economists who expected at least a modest bounceback this year are having to face the reality that markets have not behaved as they expected. "The forecast is just like trying to forecast how many inches of rain or snow—I'm going to be wrong," Yun said. But despite the misses, and noted absence of a full recovery to pre-pandemic sales, Yun and NAR Vice President of Research Jessica Lautz kept a dogged focus on the positives, predicting again that 2025 will see a significant 9% increase in existing-home sales while acknowledging even more uncertainty around the new presidential administration. "Your clients, some may be (saying), 'Oh, I remember President Trump's 4% mortgage rates.’ You have to explain why it is not likely to happen," Yun said.