Home buyers who hope to “time” the market may now have a date. A new report from Realtor.com calls out the week of Sept. 27–Oct. 3 as the prime buying time for house hunters, offering a mix of greater listings, lower home prices and less competition compared to other times of the year.
“Home shoppers heading into the fall will find an opportunity that has been hard to come by in recent years: More choices and less urgency,” says Hannah Jones, senior economist at Realtor.com. “That window has consistently landed in early fall, and this year it arrives a bit earlier than the past couple of years as inventory and price reductions both peaked earlier this past fall.”
Realtor.com’s analysis examined historical and current data on listing prices, inventory levels, new listings, time on the market, buyer demand, price reductions and more to identify the “Best Time to Buy.” At a national level, the week of Sept. 27–Oct. 3 tends to offer the greatest number of metros about 32% more active listings than at the start of the year and potential savings to buyers of about $14,000 compared to summer’s price peak. Overall, list prices are projected to be about 3.5% below their seasonal peak during that final week of September.
Researchers acknowledge that prospective buyers could fare even better by seeing greater savings with lower home prices if purchasing later in the season, but they may miss out on having more options to choose from.
Buyers Gain Greater Negotiating Footing
The housing market has faced a sluggish summer, as higher mortgage rates and home prices weigh on activity. The National Association of REALTORS® reported last week that existing-home sales fell 2% in August from July, marking the third consecutive month of declines and bringing sales to their slowest pace in more than a year.
While sales have been constrained, NAR’s data does show a strong uptick in for-sale inventory at the end of the summer, reaching the highest level in more than 10 years. The added supply is moving the market from one that has in recent years mostly favored sellers toward a more balanced market to even one that is nearing a buyer’s market, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a press conference last week on home sales. “The ample supply of homes for sale on the market is giving home buyers better opportunities to negotiate” for lower prices, he added.
During the “Best Time to Buy,” nearly 6% of homes could see price reductions during that week, which is one of the strongest weeks of the year for seller price drops, the report notes. That period also tends to bring about 20% more listings than the start of the year, offering buyers more choices.
“Buyers should use this window strategically rather than treating one week as a deadline,” Jones says. “Shopping earlier in the fall may provide the broadest selection of fresh listings, while waiting later in the season may bring additional price flexibility. The right choice depends on a buyer’s budget, timeline and local market, but preparation—including understanding a realistic monthly payment and getting pre-approved—will be especially valuable this fall.”
Related: After a Cooler Summer Market, Will Sales Pick Up for Fall?
Watch the Local Signals
The “Best Time to Buy” can vary by metro area (view Realtor.com’s full breakdown by metro). The highest number of metros—14 of the 50 largest which include Atlanta; Austin, Texas; Chicago; Dallas; Denver; Houston; Los Angeles; Minneapolis; Philadelphia and Riverside, Calif.—are expected to see buyers fare the best in the Sept. 27-Oct. 3 week, according to Realtor.com’s analysis.
But seasonal patterns differ by market, meaning some buyers may have seen their prime purchasing time earlier. For example, places like New York and Milwaukee saw their most buyer-friendly conditions Sept. 6–12, while Florida metros like Miami and Tampa tend to have the latest weeks for their “Best Time to Buy,” running Nov. 29 to Dec. 5.
For a closer look at your local market, NAR’s Metro Market Statistics Dashboard includes regularly updated information on housing affordability, home prices, sales activity, listing trends and more.
Also, help your home buyers prepare for this fall’s buying season with these resources:
