Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

REALTORS® Are Generally Confident About the Outlook in the Next Six Months

In May 2015, REALTORS® were by and large “strongly confident” about the outlook for all property types in the next six months compared to a year ago, although confidence tapered compared to the expectation in April 2015, according to the May 2015 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey. [1] The May 2015 report is based on the responses of  3,805 REALTORS®.

For the fifth month in a row, the indices rose above 50 for all property types. In the single family market, the REALTORS® Confidence Index-Six-Month Outlook registered at 74 (76 in April 2015; 66 in May 2014). The index for townhomes registered at 55 (58 in April 2015; 48 in May 2014). The index for condominiums also dipped to 50 (52 in March 2015; 43 in April 2014). An index greater than 50 indicates that the number of respondents with a “strong” outlook outnumbered those with a “weak” outlook.

Sustained job creation at a pace of 220 thousand jobs per month in 2015, lower FHA monthly mortgage insurance premium rates (resulting in a 0.5 percentage point reduction since January 2015), and the availability of three percent downpayment for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since early this year are likely underpinning the improved market confidence.

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[1] Respondents were asked “What are your expectations for the housing market over the next six months compared to the current state of the market in the neighborhood(s) or area(s) where you make most of your sales?”

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