Every month, NAR conducts the REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey to gather real estate information for the Confidence Index. The RCI-Six-Month Outlook Index tracks/predicts the level of existing home sales three months in advance (i.e.: REALTORS® are excellent forecasters!).
For example, the uptick in Existing Home Sales in September 2013 were “predicted” by the rise in the June 2013 RCI Six Month Outlook Index. The correlation coefficient between the RCI-Six-Month Outlook Index and existing home sales is about 80 percent.
Looking forward, the 6-month outlook index for October 2014 ticked up a bit (seasonally adjusted) so an uptick in sales in the coming months is likely coming.