In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses the Case-Shiller price index.

  • Today’s home price data is showing Phoenix moving up and off the charts. Very tight local inventory is jacking up prices. Compared to one year ago, home prices in Phoenix have risen by 6.1%. But most of the gains have occurred only the past few months. Price gains have been better than 2% over a single month for three consecutive months. If this trend continues, a price gain of 30% over a 12 month period is a possibility.
  • As to the broader Case-Shiller data, the 20-metro index increased for two straight months, though it is still down by 2.6% from one year ago. Dallas, Denver, Miami, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington D.C. all showed better than 1% gain in a single month, translating into double-digit price appreciation on an annualized basis. On the opposite side, for one reason or another, Atlanta continues to experience a price drop.  The Atlanta trend is highly unusual in the sense it did not experience a big housing bubble but prices have crashed as if it had the big bubble.
  • One big draw-back of the Case-Shiller data is that it is quite a lagging indicator. The latest data is the average of conditions in January, February, and March, even though we are almost in June. Other housing data have been implying even more improving conditions from March to May. So the upcoming Case-Shiller will no doubt show an even better picture.