In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) asks members “What are your expectations for the housing market over the next six months compared to the current state of the market in the neighborhood(s) or area(s) where you make most of your sales?” NAR compiles the responses into a REALTORS® Confidence Index—Six-Month Outlook. An index above 50 indicates that more respondents view markets as “strong” rather than “weak.”
The following maps show the REALTORS® Confidence Index—Six-Month Outlook across property types by state, according to the June 2016 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey Report.[1]
Compared to current conditions in the single-family homes market, the market outlooks in the next six months are “strong” to “very strong” in the District of Columbia and in all states except Alaska. Sustained job creation and the low cost of obtaining a mortgage appear to be sustaining housing demand even as homes have become increasingly unaffordable.
[1] The market outlook for each state is based on data for the last three months to increase the observations for each state. Small states such as AK, ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and D.C., may have fewer than 30 observations. Respondents rated conditions or expectations as “Strong (100),” “Moderate (50),” and “Weak (0).” The responses are compiled into a diffusion index. A diffusion index greater than 50 means more respondents rated conditions as “Strong” than “Weak.” For graphical purposes, states with index values 25 and lower are labeled “Very weak,” values greater than 25 to 49 are labeled “Weak,” a value of 50 is labeled “Moderate,” values greater than 50 to 75 are labeled “Strong,” and values greater than 76 are labeled “Very strong.”
[2] Only 20 percent of condominiums are eligible for FHA condominium unit financing because of strict eligibility criteria such as those pertaining to occupancy requirements, commercial space requirements, and delinquent dues. FHA and the GSEs have financing eligibility criteria relating to ownership occupancy requirements, delinquent dues, project approval process, and use for commercial space, among others. See NAR’s position at http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2015/10/nar-president-testifies-before-house-subcommittee-in-support-of-fha-reforms
[3]The bill, which was championed by NAR, passed the House of Representatives 427-0 and the Senate under unanimous consent on July 14, 2016. The bill is on the way for the President’s signing. See http://www.realtor.org/articles/hr-3700-heading-to-president