Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

Modest Price Growth Projected in Next 12 Months

With rising inventory  and the strong price recovery since 2012, REALTORS®  responding  to the  November 2014 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey expected home prices to increase modestly in the next 12 months, with the median at about 3 percent:[1].

The map shows the median expected price change in the next 12 months by the state of REALTOR® respondents in the Sep – Nov 2014 surveys[2].  States with the most upbeat price expectations (orange) include the District of Columbia and several states in the West and South regions. Michigan, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island also have strong price growth expectations. The states with the most upbeat price expectations have strong job growth and appear to be  attractive to millennials and retiring baby boomers[3].

Median Expected Price Change of REALTORS® in Next 12 Months, By State


Based on Sep 2014-Nov 2014 RCI Surveys

[1]               The median expected price change is the value such that 50 percent of respondents expect prices to change above this value and 50 percent of respondents expect prices to change below this value.  A median expected price change is computed for each state based on the respondents for that state. The graph shows the range of these state median expected price change. To increase sample size, the data is averaged from the last three survey months.

[2]               In generating the median price expectation at the state level, we use data for the last three surveys to have close to 30 observations. Small states such as AK,ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and the D.C. may have less than 30 observations.


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