Economists' Outlook

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Median Expected Price Change in Next 12 Months, By State, Based on January-March 2016 Surveys

In the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, the National Association of REALTORS® asks members “In the neighborhood or area where you make most of your sales, what are your expectations for residential property prices over the next year?”

Among REALTORS® who responded to the March 2016 survey, the national median expected price change over the next 12 months was 3.7 percent (3.6 percent in February 2016; 3.5 percent in March 2015), according to the March 2016 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey Report.[1]

The map below shows the median expected price change in the next 12 months for each state based on the January–March 2016 surveys. The typical respondent expected prices to increase by more than five percent to seven percent in each of the states of Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and the District of Columbia. REALTOR® respondents from California, Minnesota, Michigan, and Florida also expected strong price growth, with the median expected price growth at four to five percent in each of these states.

median expected price
REALTORS® expect housing price growth to moderate as rising prices have made homes less affordable for many. The gap in demand and supply has led to strong price growth especially in California, Colorado, Florida, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, and Washington. Of the 179 metro areas that NAR tracks and has price data on, 30 metro areas (17 percent) experienced price growth in the range of ten to 25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the levels in the fourth quarter of 2014.
metro areas


[1] Respondents were asked “What are your expectations for the housing market over the next six months compared to the current state of the market in the neighborhood(s) or area(s) where you make most of your sales?”

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