Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

Local FHFA Housing Price Index

  • Yesterday, we looked at the FHFA release focusing on national data trends. Today, we’ll dig a bit deeper to look at more local data at the regional, state, and city or MSA level.
  • Monthly FHFA releases data at the Census division level and quarterly it releases state and metro area data. These new data confirm the trend seen in NAR measures.
  • At the regional level: the most robust home price gains from a year ago in the first quarter of 2016 were in the West. NAR reported price change of 6.2 percent in March. According to FHFA year over year prices in March 2016 rose 9.5 percent in the Pacific division which includes Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California and 8.5 percent in the Mountain division which includes Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico.
  • At the other end of the spectrum, NAR data showed the smallest price gains from a year ago in first quarter were in the Northeast (2.0 percent at the end of 2016Q1 despite a strong March growth of 5.6 percent from a year ago). FHFA showed a similar pattern. Prices rose 3.2 percent in New England (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut) and 2.3 percent in the Middle Atlantic states (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) from March one year ago.
  • State by state data, pictured below, shows more detail. While Florida had strong growth, the South as a whole had more moderate growth than the West where Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Colorado rounded out the top 5 states by pace of year over year price increase in the 1st quarter of 2016.
  • Among metro areas, every single area on the FHFA’s top-20 list of metros was located in the West or Florida with the exception of Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas—the 20th ranked metro area by year over year price growth. In the NAR quarterly release in early May, NAR also saw strong performance from metro areas in Florida and the West region.

price change

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