Each day the Research staff takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update highlights jobless claims.

  • Jobless claims continue to flounder around the 400,000 mark, giving back some of last week’s improvement.  This week’s figure registered 401,000 up from last week’s measure of 395,000, which was upwardly revised by 4,000.  Despite this week’s slip, the 4-week moving average inched lower to 414,000.
  • The Labor department reported that Georgia, New York, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina all indicated fewer job losses in the construction sector, while Michigan reported an increase in layoffs in the auto industry.
  • The 400,000 mark depicted in red in the chart above is important because that is the roughly the level at which more jobs are being created than cut.  When the claims report is above that level, it suggests that there is upward pressure on the unemployment rate.  Consequently, look for a muted employment report tomorrow with a relatively small increase in employment, but a stagnant unemployment rate.
  • Employment growth remains lethargic, but new claims appear to be on a stabilizing pattern.  Employment growth and consumer confidence are closely tied.  As long as employment growth is muted, demand for consumer goods and large purchases like homes and cars will be slow restraining a sustained economic and housing recovery.