Jobless Claims

Each day the Research staff takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update highlights jobless claims and the GDP.

• The filings for unemployment insurance declined in the latest week.  The past week’s figure for first-time filers was 391,000, which is a notable decline from 428,000 the week before.
• Despite the latest week’s decline, the four-week average figure is still above 400,000.  Only when the figure comes below 400,000 on a sustained basis will the job market truly be said to be improving in a meaningful way.
• The total number of filers for unemployment checks (not just the first-timers) was 3.3 million.  It’s been stuck at this level for several months, but is lower compared to one year ago when 3.9 million people were relying on checks.
• On a separate note, the GDP reading for the second quarter was revised up slightly to a 1.3 percent expansion from the 1.0 percent previously held.  No big deal on this revision.  The GDP expansion of 1.3 percent (which in essence measures the total income of everyone and every entity combined in the U.S) is subpar.  A normal expansion rate should be 3 percent.  After a recession, the growth should be closer to 4 or 5 percent.  We do not have that.
• The third quarter GDP growth forecasts based on incoming data suggests the economy is growing at a 2 percent rate.  A slight improvement, but nothing to shout about.