The national economy is not in a recession, nor is it about to fall into one. The latest job market is showing more net new job additions and low unemployment of only 4.3%. The wage growth of 3.6% to an average hourly rate of $37.41 in April is modestly outpacing the latest available consumer price inflation in March. Moreover, income growth is easily outpacing national home price growth and, therefore, helping to improve housing affordability.
Over the past year, only 251,000 net new jobs were added to the economy, with around half of the states losing jobs. The large reduction in federal government staffing has particularly hurt D.C., Maryland, and Virginia. Job growth rates have been consistently solid in North and South Carolina, Texas in the South, and in Idaho, Nevada, and Utah. Florida has lost jobs in the past year, though it has been one of the top performers over the past five years. Any home price declines in fast job-creating areas should be viewed as short-term before the inevitable pickup in housing demand. Alaska, Louisiana, and North Dakota had been slow in job creation but could see a meaningful rise due to the energy production boom.
