Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

Instant Reaction: Jobs, March 10, 2023

The job market is improving in the right way. More jobs are being created, but even more importantly, a greater number of Americans are seeking jobs. Consequently, wage pressure is lessening. With inflation tilting towards deceleration – that is, still rising but at a slower rate – the mortgage rate can also tilt downward in the upcoming weeks.

Recently, we’ve seen several weeks of rising mortgage rates due to bad inflation figures coming out of consumer prices, producer prices, and the GDP personal consumption expenditure deflator. But today’s wage gain of 4.4% is more restrained, and points toward signs of lower future inflation numbers as more Americans find work and more goods and services are produced. Americans faced falling living standards earlier when wages were rising by 6% while consumer inflation was running at 9%. It’s possible that by the year’s end, wage growth will be 4% while consumer price inflation runs at 3%, thereby boosting living standards. More importantly for real estate, mortgage rates can now steadily trend downward.