Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

Instant Reaction: Jobs, December 2, 2022

Even with the increasing number of layoffs in some industries, the overall job market remains strong. Another 263,000 net new payroll jobs were added in November. The hourly wage rate grew by 5.1% from a year ago. The unemployment rate remains tight at 3.7%.

Generally, a strong job market at this phase of the business cycle with high consumer price inflation would mean a more aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, mortgage rates have already tipped down for the third straight week, and further declines in mortgage rates appear likely. The 10-year Treasury bond yield's reaction to the jobs news was slightly negative, with the yield rising to 3.6%. This is still measurably lower than 4.2% in early November. The 30-year mortgage rate could be near 6% in a month or two (compared to 7% just one month ago).

After a difficult period in recent months for home sales, the falling mortgage rates and net new job additions should help support housing demand going forward.

Bar graph: Payroll Jobs, January 2020 to November 2022
Line graph: Consumer Price Inflation and Wage Growth, January 2020 to November 2022
Line graph: Weekly Mortgage Rates September 2022 to December 2022
Line graph: Abnormal Spread that Should Narrow: 10-Year Treasury and 30-Year Mortgage Difference, January 1990 to January 2022
Line graph: Pending Home Sales Index, January 2020 to October 2022