Each day the Research staff takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses employment.

  • Today’s employment news was decent, but not great.  Nonfarm payroll employment was up 80,000 in October.  The increase was driven mostly by the private sector which grew by 104,000 jobs while government employment decreased by 24,000 jobs.  The general trend in government jobs has been down since late 2008; most of the government decline continues to come from state and local governments.
  • Perhaps more interestingly, August and September’s job figures were revised upward.  When first released in September, August’s job growth was 0.  It was reported that on net, the US had not added any jobs in August.  When the September figures were released, it was reported that there had actually been 57,000 jobs added in August and 103,000 in September.  Today, the previous numbers were revised again; August is now at 104,000 net jobs and September at 158,000.  These revisions highlight how difficult it can be to collect good economic data.
  • Upward revisions are good, but job creation numbers are still below what is needed for a swift reduction in the unemployment rate.  The average net job growth in the last 12 months has been 125,000 per month.  As a result, the unemployment rate changed very little in October, dropping to 9.0 percent.
  • Digging deeper, the most recent 6 months have been slower than the previous 6 months.  The recent average nonfarm job growth was 90,000 per month compared to 160,000 per month.  In a 6 month period, this is a 400,000 nonfarm job gap when jobs are created at the lower as opposed to higher rate.  Looking only at private jobs, the job creation figures are higher but the pattern is the same—job creation in the last 6 months slowed.  The good news is that the recent 3 months have been better, though still not as robust as job growth this spring.
  • Average hourly earnings were up 1.8 percent over the year but consumer prices have risen close to 4 percent.

Weekly Forecast

At a glance, this table shows the forecast for some of the most pertinent weekly data for REALTORS® to keep in mind. This changes from week to week as new data becomes available. For the full forecast from the latest Pending Home Sales release, click here (PDF).

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