Commercial real estate demand often starts before it shows up in vacancy rates, rents, or leasing activity. It starts in the local economy with businesses hiring, industries expanding, and people moving into an area.

The Commercial Real Estate Demand Index tracks those underlying economic drivers across 306 metropolitan areas and shows where demand for commercial space may be building.

The index combines four property-specific measures using publicly available government data:

Office

Growth in professional and business services employment

Industrial

Growth in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing employment

Retail

Growth in retail trade and leisure and hospitality employment

Multifamily

Gopulation growth and net migration, both domestic and international

Explore the Index

Use the interactive dashboard to compare metro areas, view overall and property-type scores, track changes over time, and see the strongest demand driver in each market.


 

How to Read the Index

The index is relative, meaning each metro is compared with the other metro areas in the index each quarter.

A score of 100 represents the average metro. Scores above 100 indicate stronger demand drivers relative to other markets, while scores below 100 indicate weaker relative momentum.

A score below 100 does not necessarily mean a market is shrinking. Many metros below 100 may still be adding jobs and residents, but at a slower pace than the average metro.

The index measures the local economic conditions that can support demand for commercial space. It does not measure vacancy rates, rents, absorption, or national commercial real estate demand.

Methodology

The index is built from publicly available government data and updated quarterly.

Employment data come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and include professional and business services; manufacturing; transportation and warehousing; retail trade; and leisure and hospitality. Population growth and net migration come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program.

Each driver is scored relative to the average of all 306 metro areas and combined into four property-type sub-indices. The overall index is weighted:

  • Office: 22%
  • Industrial: 28%
  • Retail: 22%
  • Multifamily: 28%

The final index is rescaled so that 100 equals the average metro, with every 15 points representing one standard deviation. Historical data are available quarterly from 2022 through the latest quarter.

Read the Latest Analysis

See the latest NAR Research analysis for current rankings, notable market shifts, and trends by property type.