The Market Dynamics of November: Sales, Inventory, and Buyer Trends

Fall is in full swing, and the autumnal mindset is becoming more noticeable in your day-to-day decisions. The fleece-lined jacket is starting to appear on the way to work, and the time shift makes the drive home feel like the day is essentially over. Plans to visit family are beginning to materialize, and the dread of another uncomfortable “discussion” with the extended family has many prospective buyers distracted from searching for a new home and moving forward with the move, resulting in a slower market heading into the holiday season.

These are what we call seasonality trends, patterns we see every year around the same time. They help explain how buyers and sellers usually behave as the housing market enters the fall season and offer useful insight for planning real estate strategies. Buyers and sellers can use these seasonal trends to understand the broader market as they decide when to buy or list their home.

The following estimates represent a “normal” pre-pandemic fall (1999-2019). This allows us to compare today’s housing market with what is typically expected at this time of year.

Supply & Demand

To begin, we can look at the average non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in existing-home sales in November. Historically, about 399,000 existing home sales occur in November, a notable decrease from October:

•    October: -0.9%
•    November: -9.6%
•    December: 3.9%
•    January: -27.2%

Existing-home sales typically decline by about 9.6% in November, representing a substantial shift and the third-largest average monthly reduction. The effects of fall weather are now fully present in many regions, and holiday busyness, coupled with the fact that school and activities have picked up for children, makes November a more complicated time to move than October. While sales are typically at their lowest in the last quarter of the year, they remain substantially higher than in the peak winter months on average, highlighting the effect of frigid temperatures on transaction volume.

Shifting to inventory, we can look at the percentage change in supply to better understand buyers' position in November relative to sellers' listing decisions around this time of year. Historically, about 2.4 million existing homes are available for sale in November. This level reflects the pre-pandemic fall conditions, well above today’s inventory, which remains around 1.6 million – about 800,000 homes short of what used to be normal:

•    October: -1.0%
•    November: -2.7%
•    December: -9.4% 
•    January: 0.6%

Historically, inventory declines by about 2.7% in November, just behind December, as the second-largest month-to-month decrease in supply on average. Similar to buyers, sellers likely experience sluggishness going into the colder months and may be reluctant to move due to the lack of offers being made in their local markets. Sellers may expect that listing a home in November could result in a December move, which would bring various challenges associated with moving around the new year, along with a higher likelihood of snow and added complications, especially if it requires long-distance travel.

Prices tend to change little in November, with a slight average increase of 0.2%. This reflects a change in the median price of homes sold and may also reflect the mix of homes available during the period. 

Days on the Market: How Quickly Sellers Can Expect to Find a Buyer

Next, we will look at how long a typical home stays on the market to see how November market conditions affect the time it takes a seller to find a deal in the late fall season.

The number of days a typical home spends on the market tends to increase by 2 days in November. This increase is relatively small compared to the spikes seen in early fall, suggesting that September and October mark the initial transition out of the busy season, which continues into November. Although there is less daylight in November, the larger spikes associated with adverse weather have yet to set in, making November relatively similar to October in terms of the time required to find a buyer.

Buyer Characteristics: Who is in the Market in November?

Lastly, we will look at the share of first-time and cash buyers to get a sense of the typical buyer in November. 

The share of first-time home buyers typically declines by 0.7 percentage points in November, putting it in line with late spring and late summer. Now that the school year is in full swing, first-time buyers with young children may be reluctant to move since it would mean uprooting children that have settled into a classroom. Despite this inconvenience, some first-time buyers may expect that finding a home during winter will be particularly difficult due to low inventory and adverse weather, leading them to prioritize a move before winter sets in.

Cash buyers tend to increase by about 0.7 percentage points in November, making it the most prominent fall month for this demographic and the highest share since March. Cash buyers are likely to be more active when prices are lower than in other months. While prices do see a slight increase in November, the minimal change, coupled with the consecutive decreases typically seen in early fall, may encourage some cash buyers to move before demand spikes in December, as many households push to get into a new home before the end of the year.

In November, REALTORS® can expect a slowdown in activity as households plan for the holidays and year-end. Existing-home sales typically decline by 9.6%, inventory falls by 2.7%, and homes spend about two additional days on the market; meanwhile, home prices change very little.

To reiterate, these seasonal trends are based on historical patterns we typically saw before the pandemic. Today’s housing market is far from normal, so in an upcoming analysis, we will look at how November 2026 compares with these historical patterns. Stay tuned!