South, West Population Growth to Drive New-Home Demand

Montana town

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Migration patterns have changed or kicked into overdrive in some parts of the country ever since the pandemic began. Some states are seeing a wave of new residents, which is taxing infrastructure from rapid growth and increasing housing demand.

Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic, shared data during the 2022 International Builders’ Show this week in Orlando, Fla., that shows where movers are headed. He said the states that posted the highest net population growth between 2020 and 2021 were Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.

On the other hand, the states with the highest net growth rate on a percentage basis between 2020 and 2021, according to CoreLogic data, were:

  • Idaho
  • Utah
  • Montana
  • Arizona
  • South Carolina

“Population growth in the South and Mountain West will drive new-home demand,” Nothaft said. “Texas and Florida top the list and are the only two states to register a six-figure gain in population growth between 2020 and 2021, at 310,000 and 211,000, respectively.”

The top five metro markets for new-home sales between 2020 and 2021 were Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Austin, Texas, Nothaft notes.

He predicts that between 2021 and 2030, the largest population growth will occur in the Mountain West and Southeast regions, plus Texas.

The entry-level and first-time home buyer market is expected to be robust in several Southern and Western states. Nothaft predicts that the states with the highest increase in population by 2030 for those between 20 and 29 years old will be: Idaho (15%), Utah (10%), Florida (9%), Arizona (8%), and Texas (8%).