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Retail Property Trends
Retail: US Real Estate Market Outlook (CBRE, 2025)
“Economic uncertainty and high inflation have made consumers more budget-conscious, often prioritizing essential goods that account for approximately 65% of consumer spending, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This will heighten retailers’ interest in grocery-anchored centers, which are among the best-performing retail property types.”
“As consumers increasingly favor online options, some retailers are consolidating locations and shrinking their footprints by approximately 2% per year, according to the National Retail Federation. Open-air neighborhood, community & strip centers will see increased demand next year as retailers focus more on facilitating pickups and returns of online purchases. Many retailers who had located primarily in malls will focus expansion plans on these centers due to the continued growth of e-commerce.”
The Trends Reshaping Retail Real Estate in 2024 (Forbes, Jan. 18, 2024)
“In December of 2023, the retail vacancy rate across the US was 4.6%, the lowest level recorded by the CoStar group since they began tracking it in 2007. This is both due to high demand from tenants and low supply.”
r.e. Redevelopment: Economic Uncertainty, Emerging Opportunity, and an evolving Redevelopment Landscape (RE Journals, Mar. 15, 2023)
“After a year when economic headwinds sapped some of the momentum from the commercial real estate market, the prospect of lingering inflation, challenging market dynamics and a potential recessionary cycle have all injected additional uncertainty into an industry that has been, at least until recently, enjoying a post-pandemic surge in activity...All of which makes retail redevelopment one of the most interesting—and potentially among the most important—features on the commercial real estate landscape. The retail redevelopment space is not immune to some of the factors that have complicated matters in other areas of the commercial real estate industry, but redevelopment comes with its own unique set of challenges and opportunities. However, the need for redevelopment due to dated properties that need a new vision is growing quickly.”
Retailers are Following Workers Out of City Centers (Globe St., Mar. 7, 2023)
“City economies already coping with a post-pandemic reality of downtowns full of obsolete older office buildings now are facing a migration of major retail brands, who increasingly are choosing smaller suburban locations over downtowns and malls…aiming to serve what Bloomberg calls “the work-from-home generation” in a recent report.”
Target, Amazon Debut Sustainable Store Concepts (Retail Dive, Mar. 21, 2022)
“With consumers prioritizing environmental sustainability, Amazon and Target unveiled stores that aim to use less energy than they produce, the retailers announced last week. Target's first net zero energy store is located in Vista, California, and the new Amazon Fresh store, which is pursuing net zero carbon certification, is located in Seattle.”
Did Ecommerce and COVID Kill Experiential Retail? Not a Chance (REjournals, Mar. 17, 2022)
Experiential retail that flourished prior to the pandemic has recently started to bounce back. Consumers are eager to get out of the house and have new experiences. This can also drive business to more traditional retailers located near experiential concepts.
Leasing Tips & Trends
What Leasing a Retail Space Actually Costs (Crexi, Feb. 3, 2025)
This overview of key points in retail leasing covers the main types of retail leases, budgeting, calculating rent, factors that impact leasing costs, and extra costs to consider.
Flight To Quality: How To Invest in Best-In-Class Retail Real Estate (Forbes, Dec. 17, 2024)
“Demand remains strong as convenience-oriented retailers, service providers, and food and beverage operators continue to see robust sales gains that fuel new store expansions. This supply-demand dynamic has driven occupancy, rent growth and tenant retention in retail shopping centers. Coupled with the higher yields relative to other property types and the resilience of shopping centers, these factors have fueled strong pricing and competition in the investment sales market.”
Landlords Are Learning to Adopt Retailer-Centric Technology (ICSC, Apr. 3, 2023)
“Landlords are now learning the importance of being active operators of shopping centers,” said Richard Rizika, partner and co-founder of brokerage and advisory firm Beta. “They are using customer traffic, previously only used by retailers, to identify and understand the customer pattern and profile of the shopper. In addition to using mass mobile data, they are increasingly becoming more adept at using social media to reach out to the community to market the specific offerings of the center…Rather than relying solely on the names of the anchor tenants and the perception of the types of customers these anchors attract, landlords can now point to hard data demonstrating this conviction.”
How the Pandemic Gave Commercial Real Estate Tenants the Upper Hand (CBS News, Mar. 25, 2022)
“These are some of the features of new leases tenants deem most important:
- Flexibility clauses
- More free rent
- Tenant improvement allowances
- Space in sustainable buildings
Flexibility is at the top of tenants’ wish lists when signing leases, according to brokers.”
Could the Future of The Store Be Rent by the Hour? (Insider Trends, Jan. 7, 2022)
“Very few retailers need a shop seven days a week. What’s more, most shops are open from 10am until 6pm. With our model you could utilise the space outside of those times for events and other activities.
By maximising utility, we can drive more revenue for landlords and have all sorts of much more interesting uses of the spaces at the right times of the week. We want to be in thousands of locations, so that you can have a strategy around real estate – whether you’re a retailer, an esports brand, a gym, a bank, an office, or anything else.”
Investing in Retail Properties
Retail REITs (Nareit®, Jan. 31, 2025)
Retail REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are companies that own and manage retail properties such as malls, shopping centers, and power centers. This overview includes sections on how to invest in retail REITs, quarterly data, performance details, news, and a list of retail REITs.
Investing in Retail REITs (The Motley Fool, Nov. 6, 2024)
A deep dive into retail REIT investing looks at the subcategories of retail REITs and weighs the benefits and risks of this type of investment.
What to Know Before Investing in Retail Spaces (The Cauble Group, Aug. 1, 2024)
“In this article, we'll delve into the intricacies of investing in retail spaces, equipping you with the knowledge needed to navigate this complex but potentially rewarding sector. We'll explore:
- The various types of retail properties and their characteristics
- Critical factors to consider before investing, including location analysis and tenant mix
- Financial aspects of retail investment, from valuation methods to key performance metrics
- Risks and challenges specific to retail real estate
- Strategies for success in today's competitive market
- The future outlook for retail spaces and emerging opportunities”
2023 Winter Retail Report (Colliers, Winter 2023)
“As the U.S. urban markets gradually regain momentum, we foresee a surge in fund allocations toward retail by institutional investors in 2024. Retailers are prime for expansion, eager to seize new market opportunities and increase their market share. Our research indicates that 47% of retailers plan to further establish their footprint in 2024, identifying innovative channels to boost sales and minimize operational expenses---Most retailers feel that the challenging trading environment of 2023 will persist into 2024. Moreover, nearly 40% of retailers believe that trading will be more challenging in 2024 than in 2023---E-commerce is expected to be the driving force behind retail sales for the foreseeable future, accounting for 20% of total retail sales by 2027--- Despite multiple challenges, most retailers remain optimistic about their prospects in 2024.”
Yes, Lenders Are Interested in Financing Retail Properties (WealthManagement.com, Feb. 22, 2022)
“Mortgage bankers and lenders across the U.S. want real estate owners to know one very important fact: debt is widely available for retail properties after a couple of years of being hard to come by. Melody notes that the lion’s share of capital was “not really interested” in retail in 2021. And if they were, their interest was limited to grocery-anchored centers, which are widely viewed as the most recession-resistant property type within the retail sector.
But lender sentiment has shifted significantly, Melody says.”
Websites
Retail Industry Leaders Association
“The Retail Industry Leaders Association is the US trade association for leading retailers. RILA partners with leading retailers to meet the challenges of a dynamic economy. Through collaboration and thought leadership, we advance ideas that foster free markets, competition, economic growth, and sustainability.”
CCIM Institute
“A CCIM is a Certified Commercial Investment Member. For more than 50 years, the CCIM designation remains the gold standard for commercial real estate professionals, including appraisers, asset managers, brokers, developers, investors, lenders, and other allied professionals.”
International Council of Shopping Centers
“The member organization for industry advancement, ICSC promotes and elevates the marketplaces and spaces where people shop, dine, work, play and gather as foundational and vital ingredients of communities and economies.”
IREM
“IREM® is an international institute with the learning, certifications, and networking that property managers need to take on real estate management’s most dynamic challenges.”
National Grocers Association
“For nearly 40 years, the National Grocers Association (NGA) has represented independent supermarket operators in every congressional district across the country, and the wholesalers that service them.”
National Retail Federation
“The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail thrive.”
eBooks & Other Resources
eBooks.realtor
The following eBooks and digital audiobooks are available to NAR members:
Big Box Reuse (eBook)
Commercial Property Investing Explained Simply (eBook)
The Complete Guide to Financing Real Estate Developments (eBook)
The Dynamics of Property Location (eBook)
The Encyclopedia of Commercial Real Estate Advice (eBook)
Gen BuY: How Tweens, Teens and Twenty-Somethings are Revolutionizing Retail! (eBook)
Real Estate Development and Investment (eBook)
Sustainable Property Development (eBook)
Books, Videos, Research Reports & More
As a member benefit, the following resources and more are available for loan through the NAR Library. Items will be mailed directly to you or made available for pickup at the REALTOR® Building in Chicago.
Retail Development (Washington, D.C. : Urban Land Institute, 2008) HF5430.R48 2008
Green Retail: Selected Readings (Washington, D.C. :Urban Land Institute, 2007) NA 6230 Ur1g
Retail 1-2-3: A Workbook for Local Officials (Chicago, IL : Metropolitan Planning Council, 2007) HF 5429 El7
The Lease Manual: A Practical Guide to Negotiating Office, Retail, and Industrial Leases (Chicago, IL :American Bar Association, 2006) KF593.C6 D55
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