August 2015 EHS Over Ten Years

View the August 2015 EHS Over Ten Years slides.

Every month NAR produces existing-home sales, median sales prices and inventory figures. The reporting of this data is always based on homes sold the previous month and the data is explained in comparison to the same month a year ago. We also provide a perspective of the market relative to last month, adjusting for seasonal factors, and comment on the potential direction of the housing market.

The data below shows what our current month data looks like in comparison to the last ten August months and how that might compare to the “ten year August average” which is an average of the data from the past ten August months.

• The total number of homes sold in the US for August 2015 is higher than the ten year August average. Regionally, the Northeast was slightly below the ten year August average, while all other regions showed stronger sales. The Midwest had the largest increase above the average by 10 percent; the South was also up 7 percent while West was only up 1 percent essentially level with the August average. The West had consistently been second to the South in August sales, but over the last three years the Midwest has taken the lead.
• Comparing August of 2005 to August of 2015 fewer homes were sold in 2015 in the US and all regions, the Northeast undergoing the biggest decline of 42.1 percent. The Midwest and the South both had the smallest drop in sales at 21 percent over the ten year period.
• This August the median home price is higher than the ten year August average median price for the US and all four regions.
• Comparing August of 2015 to August 2005, the median price of a home increased only in the Midwest and South. The US had a slight decline in price while the Northeast dipped 4 percent and the West experienced a 7 percent decline in price.
• Looking at year over year changes the West led all regions in price growth until 2007 when the Northeast had the fastest growing home prices. Since 2012 the West has resumed the lead in August price growth, coming in as the top or second-place region measured by growth rate. By price level, the Northeast took the lead from the West in 2008 and held it until 2013 when it fell to the second highest price region. The median for the West surpassed the $300,000 mark while the Northeast median remains under that threshold.
• The median price year over year percentage change shows that home prices began to fall in 2006 nationally, and prices dipped by double digits in 2009 for all regions. The trend for median home prices turned around completely in 2012, when all regions including the US showed price gains. Because of this, all regions and the US saw their lowest August median price in 2011. The West had the largest gain in price of 16 percent, while the Northeast had the smallest gain at 2 percent from 2011 to 2012.  This August the West (7.1%) had the highest year over year price percentage change over the US and the other three regions.
• There are currently fewer homes available for sale in the US this August than the ten year August average.  In 2005 the US had the fastest pace of homes sold relative to the inventory when months supply was 4.7 months. In 2010 the US had the slowest relative pace when it would have taken 11.5 months to sell the supply of homes on the market at the prevailing sales pace. Relative to all supply, the condo market had the biggest challenge in 2008 when it would have taken almost 16 months to sell all available inventory at the prevailing sales pace. Since 2011 supply levels for both single family and condos have gradually come down to a healthy balance of inventories.
• The ten year August average national months supply is 7.5, and this August we are at 5.2 months supply. The ten year average month supply for August for condos is 8.8 months and the single family supply is 7.3 months.