NAR Identifies 10 Markets Expected to Outperform Over the Next Three to Five Years

WASHINGTON (December 11, 2019) – The National Association of Realtors® identified 10 markets expected to outperform over the next three to five years. In alphabetical order, the markets are:

  • Charleston, South Carolina
  • Charlotte, North Carolina
  • Colorado Springs, Colorado
  • Columbus, Ohio
  • Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas
  • Fort Collins, Colorado
  • Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Ogden, Utah
  • Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina
  • Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida

“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer-term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”

NAR identified the top 10 metro areas based on a myriad of factors, including domestic migration, housing affordability for new residents, consistent job growth relative to the national average, population age structure, attractiveness for retirees and home price appreciation, among other variables.

“Potential buyers in these 10 markets will find conditions especially favorable to purchase a home going into the next decade,” said NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco, CA. “The dream of owning a home appears even more attainable for those who move to or are currently living in these markets.”

Strong job growth is one factor driving up prices in these markets, with payroll employment rising about 2.5% annually in the last three years, higher than the national rate of 1.6%. In Ogden, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Raleigh, job growth rose nearly 3%.1

Movers2 flock to these markets at higher rates than the average of the 100 largest U.S. metro areas. In Colorado Springs, recent movers accounted for 21% of the total population, followed by Fort Collins at 17% and Las Vegas at 16%. These areas attract various age groups. For example, 11% of the people who moved to Tampa were 65 years and older, while 54% of recent movers in Durham were between the ages of 18 and 34. 

In most of these metro areas, about half of recent movers who are renting can afford to buy a home in those respective markets when compared to the nation’s 100 largest metro areas. Homeownership rates in these markets are expected to increase due to the relative affordability.

To view NAR’s Top 10 Outperforming Markets report, visit https://www.nar.realtor/reports/top-ten-outperforming-metro-markets-report.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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1 Source: Compounded annual growth of payroll employment from 2016 Q3 to 2019 Q3, Bureau of Employment Statistics

2 Source: NAR calculations of the 2018 American Community Survey

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