WASHINGTON (December 11, 2019) – A group of top economists arrived at a consensus 2020 economic and real estate forecast today at the National Association of Realtors®’ first-ever Real Estate Forecast Summit. The economists who gathered at NAR’s Washington, D.C. headquarters expect the U.S. economy to continue expanding next year while projecting real estate prices will rise and reiterating that a recession remains unlikely.
These economists predicted a 29% probability of a recession in 2020 with forecasted Gross Domestic Product growth of 2.0% in 2020 and 1.9% in 2021. The group expects an annual unemployment rate of 3.7% next year with a small rise to 3.9% in 2021.
When asked if the Federal Open Market Committee will change the federal funds rate in 2020, 69% of the economists said they expect no change, while 31% expect the committee will lower the rate next year.