WASHINGTON (August 26, 2013) – Vacancy rates generally are tightening in commercial real estate sectors with modest rent growth, according to the National Association of Realtors® quarterly commercial real estate forecast.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said commercial real estate is on a more moderate growth path. “Office vacancies haven’t declined much because total jobs today are still below that of the pre-recession level in 2007, but rising international trade is boosting demand for warehouse space,” he said. “Consumer spending has been favorable for the retail market, and rising construction is keeping apartment availability fairly even, though at low vacancy levels. That, in turn, is pushing apartment rents to rise twice as fast as broad consumer prices and average wage growth.”
National vacancy rates over the coming year are forecast to decline 0.2 percentage point in the office market, 0.6 point in industrial, and 0.6 point for retail; however, the average multifamily vacancy rate is unlikely to change, with that sector continuing to experience the tightest availability and biggest rent increases.
NAR’s latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook* offers overall projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc., a source of commercial real estate performance information.
Vacancy rates in the office sector are expected to decline from a projected 15.7 percent in the third quarter to 15.5 percent in the third quarter of 2014.
The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently (in the third quarter) are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.7 percent; New York City, at 9.8 percent; Little Rock, Ark., 12.1 percent; and Birmingham, Ala., 12.4 percent.
Office rents should increase 2.5 percent this year and 2.8 percent in 2014. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is seen at 30.1 million square feet this year and 41.6 million in 2014.
Industrial vacancy rates are likely to fall from 9.3 percent in the third quarter of this year to 8.7 percent in the third quarter of 2014.
The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Orange County, Calif., with a vacancy rate of 3.8 percent; Los Angeles, 4.0 percent; Miami, 5.9 percent; and Seattle at 6.4 percent.
Annual industrial rents are expected to rise 2.4 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2014. Net absorption of industrial space nationally is anticipated at 102.0 million square feet in 2013 and 105.8 million next year.
Retail vacancy rates are forecast to decline from 10.6 percent in the third quarter of this year to 10.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014.
Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, 3.9 percent; Fairfield County, Conn., at 4.1 percent; Long Island, N.Y., 5.0 percent; and Orange County, Calif., at 5.5 percent.
Average retail rents should increase 1.5 percent in 2013 and 2.3 percent next year. Net absorption of retail space is projected at 11.8 million square feet in 2013 and 18.2 million next year.
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is likely to see vacancy rates edge up only 0.1 percentage point from 3.9 percent in the third quarter to 4.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014, with construction rising to meet increased demand. Generally, vacancy rates below 5 percent are considered a landlord’s market where demand justifies higher rent.
Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are New Haven, Conn., at 1.9 percent; Syracuse, N.Y., 2.0 percent; New York City and San Diego, at 2.1 percent each; and Minneapolis, 2.2 percent.
Average apartment rents are forecast to rise 4.0 percent this year and another 4.0 percent in 2014. Multifamily net absorption is projected to total 266,700 units in 2013 and 259,800 next year.
The Commercial Real Estate Outlook is published by the NAR Research Division. NAR’s Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.
The NAR commercial community includes commercial members; commercial real estate boards; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations – CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.
Approximately 78,000 NAR and institute affiliate members specialize in commercial brokerage and related services, and an additional 232,000 members offer commercial real estate services as a secondary business.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. For additional commentary and consumer information, visit www.houselogic.com and http://retradio.com.
*Additional analyses will be posted under Economists’ Outlook in the Research blog section of nar.realtor in coming days at: http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/.
The next commercial real estate forecast and quarterly market report will be released on November 22 at 10:00 a.m. EST.