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- Existing-home sales decreased 7.1 percent in February from one month prior while new home sales rose 2 percent. These headline figures are seasonally adjusted figures and are reported in the news. However, for everyday practitioners, simple raw counts of home sales are often more meaningful than the seasonally adjusted figures. The raw count determines income and helps better assess how busy the market has been.
- Specifically, 314,000 existing-homes were sold in February while new home sales totaled 44,000. These raw counts represent a 4 percent gain for existing-home sales from one month prior while new home sales increased 16 percent. What was the trend in the recent years? Sales from January to February increased by 3 percent on average in the prior three years for existing-homes and rose 11 percent for new homes. So this year, both existing and new home sales outperformed compared to their recent norm.
- Why are seasonally adjusted figures reported in the news? To assess the overall trending direction of the economy, nearly all economic data – from GDP and employment to consumer price inflation and industrial production - are seasonally adjusted to account for regular events we can anticipate have an effect on data around the same time each year. For example, if December raw retail sales rise by, say, 20 percent, we should not celebrate this higher figure if it is generally the case that December retail sales rise by 35 percent because of holiday gift buying activity. Similarly, we should not say that the labor market is crashing when the raw count on employment declines in September just as the summer vacation season ends. That is why economic figures are seasonally adjusted with special algorithms to account for the normal seasonal swings in figures and whether there were more business days (Monday to Friday) during the month. When seasonally adjusted data say an increase, then this is implying a truly strengthening condition.
- What to expect about home sales in the upcoming months in terms of raw counts? Independent of headline seasonally adjusted figures, expect busier activity in March and even better activity in April for existing-home sales. For example, in the past 3 years, March sales typically increased by 26 to 37 percent from February and with more gains in April where sales rose by 11 to 19 percent from March. For the new home sales market, the raw sales activity in March tends to be better than that occurring in February, and activity is expected to grow more in April. For example, in the past 3 years, March sales rose by 2 to 14 percent from February while April sales typically rose by 4 to 5 percent from March.
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