Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

April 2015 Case Shiller Housing Price Index

  • Today, Case Shiller released their housing price index data for April 2015 which showed that house prices rose 4.6 percent from April 2014 for the 10-city composite and 4.9 percent for the 20-city composite.  The national index showed a gain of 4.2 percent year over year.
  • Last week NAR reported rising prices in April and May.  Price growth in the year ended May 2015 was 7.9 percent after an 8.5 percent rise in April 2015.  FHFA also showed price gains of 5.3 percent for the year ended April after a gain of 5.3 percent for the year ended in March.
  • Today’s release from Case Shiller provides evidence that in many areas home prices are not accelerating, but still continue to grow at a strong pace.
  • Strong buyer demand and low inventories coupled with relatively low levels of new construction are helping prices continue to grow and to keep the housing market tipped in favor of sellers.
  • Of course, potential buyers and sellers should be sure to put the national numbers in the context of what is going on in their local markets.  The fastest overall growth rates were seen in Denver (10.3%), San Francisco (10.0%), Dallas (8.8%), and Miami (8.5%) in the year ending April 2015—a repeat of last month’s top markets.  By contrast, Washington DC (1.1%), Cleveland (1.3%), and Boston (1.8%) had the slowest year over year growth.  Data shows that sellers in these somewhat weaker areas may not have as much power to demand higher prices for their homes given the local market.
  • NAR reports the median price of all homes that have sold while Case Shiller reports the results of a weighted repeat-sales index.  Case Shiller uses public records data which has a reporting lag.  To deal with the lag, Case Shiller data is based on a 3 month moving average, so reported April prices include information from repeat transactions closed in February, March, and April.  For this reason, changes in the NAR median price tend to lead Case Shiller and may suggest that continued strength in prices will be seen in the next few months.  The current strong pace needs to slow somewhat to keep housing prices in line with job and wage fundamentals.

case shiller

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