Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

Each day the Research staff takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update highlights retail sales as well as import and export prices.

Retail Sales:

  • Positive news, retail sales in September rose 1.1 percent, following a revised 0.3 percent increase. Retail sales were higher than predicted by economists.
  • Gas sales contributed to the rise in the core with a 1.2 percent increase. Sales for September excluding autos and gas were up 0.5 percent, after a 0.5 percent increase in August.
  • Today’s retail sales numbers are one sign that the economy will avoid recession and is gradually and slowly improving.

Import/Export Prices:

  • Petroleum import prices rose 0.3 percent in September reversing a revised 0.2 percent decline in August.
  • Import prices had 7 months of year-over-year changes of more than 10 percent—in September the year-over-year change was 13.4 percent.   Stubbornly high import prices will keep the broader consumer price index at above 3 percent and possible even reach 4 percent by the year end.  Social security checks will likely get a 3.5 percent cost-of-living-adjustment boost in 2012.  But unfortunately workers’ wage has been keeping up with inflation, rising at less than 2 percent in the past year.
  • Export prices increased 0.4 percent reflecting pressure from agricultural products—export prices jumped 1.6 percent following August's 2.1 percent increase.
  • Year-over-year, export prices increased 9.5 percent.   A 22 percent jump in agricultural products should help push up land prices in the farm states.

Weekly Forecast

At a glance, this table shows the forecast for some of the most pertinent weekly data for REALTORS® to keep in mind. This changes from week to week as new data becomes available. For the full forecast from the latest Pending Home Sales release, click here (PDF).

Notice: The information on this page may not be current. The archive is a collection of content previously published on one or more NAR web properties. Archive pages are not updated and may no longer be accurate. Users must independently verify the accuracy and currency of the information found here. The National Association of REALTORS® disclaims all liability for any loss or injury resulting from the use of the information or data found on this page.

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