Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

REALTORS® Expect Prices to Increase at a Slightly Faster Pace in Next 12 Months

REALTORS® who responded to the April 2015 survey expected prices to increase at a slightly faster pace in the next 12 months compared to the expectation a month ago, according to the April 2015 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey. The median expected price growth in the next 12 months is 3.9 percent (3.5 percent in March 2015; 4.0 percent in April 2014).[1]

The map below shows the median expected price change in the next 12 months for each state based on the Feb 2015 –April 2015 surveys.[2]  REALTOR® respondents from Colorado had the most upbeat price expectations, with the median expected price growth at 6 percent, followed by the District of Columbia at 5 percent.  Price expectations were also upbeat in Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Hawaii, and New Hampshire with the median expected price growth at 4 to 5 percent. With oil prices still at a slump, REALTORS® expected prices to increase more modestly at a median price growth of 2 to 3 percent in North Dakota, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Louisiana. In Texas, where the economy is more diversified, the median expected growth in prices in the next 12 months is about 4 percent.

med expected price


[1] A comparison of the expected price growth for the next 12 months compared to the actual price growth shows the expected price growth to be more conservative than the actual price growth, but in the same direction.

[2]  In generating the median price expectation at the state level, we use data for the last three surveys to have close to 30 observations. Small states such as AK,ND, SD, MT, VT, WY, WV, DE, and the D.C. may have less than 30 observations.

 

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