February 2016 EHS Over Ten Years

Every month NAR produces existing-home sales, median sales prices and inventory figures. The reporting of this data is always based on homes sold the previous month and the data is explained in comparison to the same month a year ago. We also provide a perspective of the market relative to last month, adjusting for seasonal factors, and comment on the potential direction of the housing market.

The data below shows what our current month data looks like in comparison to the last ten February months and how that might compare to the “ten year February average” which is an average of the data from the past ten February months.

• The total number of homes sold in the US for February 2016 is higher the ten year February average. Regionally, the Northeast and the West were slightly below the ten year February average, while the Midwest and South showed stronger sales. Since 2014 February EHS has been on the rise for the US and all four regions.
• Comparing February of 2006 to February of 2016 fewer homes were sold in 2016 in the US and all regions, the Northeast enduring the biggest decline of 44.2 percent. The US had a drop of 25.8 percent while the South had the smallest drop in sales at 17.6 percent over the ten year period.
• This February the median home price is higher than the ten year February average median price for the US and all four regions.
• Comparing February of 2016 to February 2006, the median price of a home increased only in the Midwest and South. The US had a slight decline in price of 2.3 percent while the Northeast had the biggest dip of 14.3 percent and the West experienced a 5.8 percent decline in price.
• Looking at year over year changes, after February 2011 price growth began to stabilize and maintain momentum thru the current year for the US and four regions. Since 2012 February price growth has been steady, while the Northeast experienced a few slight declines in 2014 and 2016.
• The median price year over year percentage change shows that home prices began to fall in 2007 nationally, and prices dipped by double digits in 2009 for all regions except the Midwest which was close at 9.2 percent. The trend for median home prices turned around completely in 2013, when all regions including the US showed price gains. Because of this, all regions and the US saw their lowest February median price in either 2011 or 2012. The West had the largest gain in price of 22.3 percent, while the Northeast had the smallest gain at 5.5 percent from 2012 to 2013. This February the West (7.0%) had the highest year over year price percentage change over the US and the other three regions.
• There are currently fewer homes available for sale in the US this February than the ten year February average.  This current February the US had the fastest pace of homes sold relative to the inventory when months supply was 4.4 months. In 2008 the US had the slowest relative pace when it would have taken 9.8 months to sell the supply of homes on the market at the prevailing sales pace. Relative to all supply, the condo market had the biggest challenge in 2009 when it would have taken 14 months to sell all available inventory at the prevailing sales pace. Since 2012 supply levels for both single family and condos have gradually come down to a healthy balance of inventories.
• The ten year February average national months supply is 6.7 while single family is 6.5 and condos are 8.2 months supply.
• To summarize current February trends show prices and sales on the upswing while inventory conditions continue to deteriorate. The housing market is starting to stabilize and return to the period prior to the housing bubble.

View the Feb 2016 EHS Over Ten Years slides.