Economists' Outlook

Housing stats and analysis from NAR's research experts.

Daily Economic Update: Jobless Claims, Productivity

New jobless claims surged again last week, by 43,000, to end at 474,000. The four-week average was consequently up by 22,250 to 431,250 which is almost 40,000 increase from a month ago. The Department of Labor indicated there were special factors that led to the increase. Particularly, the biggest factor was an adjustment timing for a spring break in New York state, as well as the new emergency benefit plan in Oregon. The auto sector also suffered significant losses due to shutdowns and possible supply disruptions from Japan. Given the volatile month of April for jobless claims, tomorrow’s employment report will provide a clearer picture of the job market situation. There had been 1.3 million net new job additions in the past 12 months to March.  If jobless claims stays up like the past week and do not trend down, NAR expects less than 1.5  million net new jobs in the next 12 months, which would barely lower the unemployment rate.
Another report on productivity and costs showed small gains in the first quarter. Nonfarm business productivity increased an annualized 1.6 percent, after 2.9 percent gain seen in the previous quarter. The growth in productivity was due to an output gain of 3.1 percent in the nonfarm business sector, which also declined from a 4.4 percent increase in the prior quarter. Hours worked posted similar increase as the previous quarter of 1.4 percent. Finally, in good news for labor and bad news for businesses’ costs, the cost of labor went up 1.0 percent from a 1.0 percent decline in the fourth quarter. On annualized basis, earnings were up 2.6 percent.

Each day the Research staff takes a look at recently released economic indicators, addressing what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update highlights jobless claims and business productivity.

  • dfu050511
    New jobless claims surged again last week by 43,000 to end at 474,000. The four-week average was consequently up by 22,250 to 431,250 which is an almost 40,000 increase compared to a month ago.
  • The Department of Labor indicated there were special factors that led to the increase. In particular the biggest factor was an adjustment timing for spring break in New York state, as well as the new emergency benefit plan in Oregon.
  • The auto sector also suffered significant losses due to shutdowns and possible supply disruptions from Japan. Given the volatile month of April for jobless claims, tomorrow’s employment report will provide a clearer picture of the job market situation.
  • There were 1.3 million net new job additions in the past 12 months to March.  If jobless claims stay up like they have in the past week and do not trend down, NAR expects less than 1.5  million net new jobs in the next 12 months, which would barely lower the unemployment rate.
  • Another report on productivity and costs showed small gains in the first quarter. Non-farm business productivity increased an annualized 1.6 percent, after a 2.9 percent gain seen in the previous quarter.
  • The growth in productivity was due to an output gain of 3.1 percent in the non-farm business sector, which also declined from a 4.4 percent increase in the prior quarter. Hours worked posted a similar increase  of 1.4 percent over the previous quarter.
  • Finally, in good news for labor and bad news for businesses’ costs, the cost of labor went up 1.0 percent from a 1.0 percent decline in the fourth quarter. On an annualized basis, earnings were up 2.6 percent.
Notice: The information on this page may not be current. The archive is a collection of content previously published on one or more NAR web properties. Archive pages are not updated and may no longer be accurate. Users must independently verify the accuracy and currency of the information found here. The National Association of REALTORS® disclaims all liability for any loss or injury resulting from the use of the information or data found on this page.

Advertisement